I’ve failed to blog this year because I’ve been too busy; at least that’s my excuse and I’m sticking to it! Business is up (about 50% on last year) and it’s been hard to get space to take a breather.

I’d like to be able to claim credit for this upswing (one of my roles is to get new business, after all) but I can’t – it largely happened without my doing. In fact, there seems to be an inverse relationship – the less I try to sell the more work comes in; it won’t be long before someone cottons on to this and I’m put out to pasture.

So what’s behind this? It doesn’t really make sense – the US economy (still by far the largest source of our business) remains moribund, companies continue to cut back and the general push to make savings by outsourcing to low-cost countries remains the orthodoxy.

A couple of reasons are that I think we do a good job (hey, you’d expect me to say that!):

• We have a good team that does quality work. We get to know clients, our churn rates are very low, we have very experienced people etc – these are the minimum requirements in today’s environment and we tick the boxes.

• We’re easy to work with –no minimum commitment, we do a whole range of services so can help out in many ways, we’re very reachable and responsive and while we’re not super cheap, we’re not super expensive either.

But there are three other reasons I think are at play, driving work our way:

• Clients are overworked
• Indian-based vendors are getting more costly and often still miss the quality mark
• Corporations are increasingly turning to contractors and project based work

Clients are overworked

No surprises here. Over the last two years they’ve cut to the bone and people that remain are working harder, longer and need help. Companies don’t have the bandwidth to train lots of people or vendors and are happy to turn to an external vendor they can trust.

Indian vendors are getting less attractive

Let me say upfront that I have nothing about work being conducted in India, in fact I think it’s often a great idea – we have a good number of people there that work for us, and so I know the benefits. But I also see some of the downsides and I think increasingly clients do too. This is what we hear:

• Outsourcing to India is no longer the bargain it once was. The Rupee/Dollar exchange rates continues to pressure Indian providers (their costs are in Rupees but their income is usually in US$). Since Jan 2009, for instance, the dollar rate has fallen from nearly 52 Rupees to about 45 today, a 14% fall, continuing to erode their cost advantage
• Vendor rates have also gone up as companies try to move up the value chain
• Quality remains an issue, especially in areas of writing and services that require cultural insight (marketing, advertising, trend work etc)
• Churn rates are high and clients are fed-up at having to train and retrain.
• Minimum FTE (full-time equivalent) commitments are off-putting

Here’s an anecdotal example of how things have changed. Over the last month we’ve been recruiting to create a team of five writers for some newsletter work we have. We’ve advertised on online job boards, used Elance, Guru, and leveraged our own teleworking database at ClickNwork and reviewed in detail over 200 applicants from a pool of well over a thousand. In previous years I’d have expected Indian freelancers to be amongst the cheapest, but today its people in Pakistan and Africa (I’m sure they’d have been cheaper a few years ago, but they just weren’t as connected then); good Indian freelance writers are today seeking rates comparable to writers in the US, which would have been unheard of just a few years back.

Shift to contract work

Last, companies are getting used to using contractors. This has been going on a while but the recession gave companies a great excuse to cut back, and instead of hiring back, they’re using project-based, contingent labor. A couple of stats:

• An April 2009 report (“The Emerging New Workforce”) by Littler Mendelson, one of the largest employment law firms in the country, predicted that following the end of the recession, “50% of the workforce added in 2010 will be made up of one form or another of contingent workers. As a result, approximately 25% to as high as 35% of the workforce will be made up of temporary workers, contractors, or other project based labor.”

• This isn’t just unskilled labor; it’s increasingly the domain of professional work. This chart, that comes from Staffing Industry Analysts, via Little, makes the point that over time, spending on contingent labor has increasingly been for professional skills (“Commercial” = Office/clerical or industrial)

• Analyst Christopher Dwyer of Aberdeen Group believes such workers already make up 20% of the labor force, a figure that will rise to 25% as early as next year.

Put it all together and you have companies overburdened, looking for different solutions than putting more work over to India and an emerging acceptance of project-based work completed by a growing cadre of temporary professionals.

We had a little bit of good news this week – we’ve been asked to take over some outsourced research for one of the world’s largest advertising conglomerates. That makes it sound like a big deal but it’s not, at least not yet – it’s perhaps 0.5-1 full time equivalent, but hey, it’s something, especially in this environment!

The significant thing is that the work is now coming to Business360 instead of an Indian-based supplier that had the contract for a number of years, which means the work will now be completed by US-based researchers working from home. It’s not much, but if every company in the US did the same we wouldn’t be in a recession!

I don’t have the full reasons that the client changed but I gather we’re about the same on price but the advantage of having the work done within the same time zone and by experienced researchers (professional librarians, corporate librarians and the like) made the switch worthwhile.

The other day Gartner came out with its top 30 offshoring destinations. Unsurprisingly, India is the front runner but the range of choice is impressive:

New contenders are emerging to challenge the Bric (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries’ dominance of the offshoring market.

While India was the “undisputed leader” followed by China in the list of the top 30 offshoring destinations, as compiled by analysts Gartner, this year’s list showed Mexico, Poland and Vietnam pushing their way up to take them on.

Ian Marriott, research vice president at Gartner, said these countries would be seeking to take advantage of the credit crisis to capitalise on organisations’ drive to save costs

You can see Gartner’s list here and some commentary here.

Around the same time the UK’s Computer Weekly came out with its Top five outsourcing destinations to watch for IT services and outsourcing. IT outsourcing is very different than BPO, but where IT leads, BPO often follows. Computer Weekly’s top five are:

1. Argentina

2. Bulgaria

3. China

4. Egypt

5. The Philippines

I was intrigued by the inclusion of The Philippines, a country where we already complete a fair amount of work – the time zone is great for overnight processing, the education system is good and, we find, people are keen to learn and ready to listen to feedback – important things when you need manage quality from many time zones distant.

Over the last five years or so the dominant direction of business process outsourcing has been to India, with other countries like the Philippines and China lagging behind but still taking a fair chunk of work from US and European professionals.

And the biggest reason was the chance to lower costs, mainly on the back of lower wages in these countries. The wage differential remains substantial but the case for pushing ever more work to these countries looks to be weakening.

A December 2008 report from TowerGroup points out that managers at some US companies are discovering that offshoring in India is not the cost-saver they imagined, especially for captive offshore operations, in which the US parent sets up and runs the outsourcing operation, usually employing local workers to staff much of the operation.

Reading this reminded me of a February 11, 2008 article in the Wall Street Journal –
Rethinking the India Back Office; Some Western Firms Weigh Selling Their Units as Costs Rise, Dollar Weakens. The author, Jackie Range, cited a study by McKinsey & Co. and Nasscom, the Indian tech and outsourcing industry group, which found that, on average, company back offices – “captives” – were less efficient than companies run by outsourcing firms that specialize in the business. For some types of back-office work, captives’ costs are 30% higher. The survey also found that the higher costs didn’t lead to lower staff turnover or better-quality work.

More recently, the September issue of McKinsey Quarterly had an article – Time to rethink offshoring? – that showed how shifting cost curves mean the US is becoming a more competitive place to manufacture high-tech products.

“The production of high-tech goods has moved steadily from the United States to Asia over the last decade. The reasons are familiar: lower wages, a stable global economy, and rapidly growing local markets. These factors combined to make nations such as China and Malaysia favored manufacturing locations. In the last two years, however, the favorable economic winds that carried offshoring forward have turned turbulent. The new conditions are undermining some of the factors that made manufacturers of every stripe, including those in high tech, move production offshore” – Ajay Goel, Nazgol Moussavi, and Vats N. Srivatsan, McKinsey Quarterly, Sept 2008

McKinsey’s argument rests mainly on higher wage inflation in offshore locations and transportation costs and here is their summary analysis:

Manufacturing high-tech products is obviously different from knowledge services, but it all goes to show that this change is affecting business across a number of fronts.

Also, since McKinsey complete its analysis the dollar has strengthened, especially against the Indian Rupee, and oil prices have collapsed, so their findings wouldn’t be as compelling today. But these are likely short-term affects that won’t affect the longer-term view.

All up, clients will start to be more discerning when it comes to outsourcing and offshoring. One to watch.